Hazardous Weather Potential

[Ted Jacobson]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THERE IS A RISK AGAIN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

Maps, Graphics, Technical Discussion:
(*NOTE* Proposed Severe Category changes described below)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Athens OH 7-Day Forecast (updates 4-5 times daily):
http://climate.athens.oh.us/Athens-7Day/

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MARK TRANSITION FROM HOT WEEKEND TO COOL MIDWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF SUNSHINE...WITH A HOT
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA. TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN THE PAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS... AS CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASE. DEW POINTS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE ON SUNDAY...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OUR VICINITY ON MONDAY TOO. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...UNSEASONABLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNES DAY AND THURSDAY.

----[ Proposed Severe 'risk category' changes ]----------------------

The SPC is expanding the risk categories from four to five and
clarifying the risk previously labeled as "See Text." That descriptor
will be replaced by a categorical line and the term "Marginal" to
denote areas with a 5 percent probability of severe weather. The
upper end of the "Slight Risk" category will be renamed "Enhanced"
(short for "Enhanced Slight") to denote a threshold 30 percent
probability of severe wind or hail and/or a 10 percent chance of a
tornado during the Day 1 period. For Days 2 and 3, the "Enhanced"
risk category will denote a 30 percent total severe probability. The
Moderate and High risk thresholds will remain essentially unchanged.

Details: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/dy1-3example/

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The "StormFlood" Listserv is a regional preparedness and
planning partnership made possible by funding from
Ohio University Risk Management and Safety
http://www.ohio.edu/riskandsafety/

Affiliated web services:

Southeast Ohio Flood Potential Monitoring page:
http://seorf.ohiou.edu/xx073/floodprep.html

Athens Co. OH Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network:
http://climate.athens.oh.us/oh-at/

Athens Ohio Climatological Data Archive (7/2002-3/2012):
http://climate.athens.oh.us/

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