Hazardous Weather Potential

[Ted Jacobson]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
409 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY EAST AND WEST OF THE
NEARBY COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FOR MONDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

Maps, Graphics, Technical Discussion:
(*NOTE* Proposed Severe Category changes described below)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Athens OH 7-Day Forecast (updates 4-5 times daily):
http://climate.athens.oh.us/Athens-7Day/

...DISCUSSION...

EXITING HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING HIGH.  A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SYSTEM...TOGETHER WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS DRIER
...COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH SHOULD BRING
STORM CHANCES TO AN END ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

----[ Proposed Severe 'risk category' changes ]----------------------

The SPC is expanding the risk categories from four to five and
clarifying the risk previously labeled as "See Text." That descriptor
will be replaced by a categorical line and the term "Marginal" to
denote areas with a 5 percent probability of severe weather. The
upper end of the "Slight Risk" category will be renamed "Enhanced"
(short for "Enhanced Slight") to denote a threshold 30 percent
probability of severe wind or hail and/or a 10 percent chance of a
tornado during the Day 1 period. For Days 2 and 3, the "Enhanced"
risk category will denote a 30 percent total severe probability. The
Moderate and High risk thresholds will remain essentially unchanged.

Details: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/dy1-3example/

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Affiliated web services:

Southeast Ohio Flood Potential Monitoring page:
http://seorf.ohiou.edu/xx073/floodprep.html

Athens Co. OH Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network:
http://climate.athens.oh.us/oh-at/

Athens Ohio Climatological Data Archive (7/2002-3/2012):
http://climate.athens.oh.us/

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