Hazardous Weather Potential

[Ted Jacobson]

*** NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS ***

The still-evolving Friday afternoon/evening situation warrants
your increased awareness on Friday.  "Moderate" Risk advisories
for this part of the country are relatively infrequent,
and deserve special attention.  (ted)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
408 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

ANY HEAVY THUNDERSTORM CAN CAUSE AT LEAST MINOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF IT PERSISTS OR FOLLOWS CLOSELY AFTER
ANOTHER.

DAY 2 (Friday) CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF IA/MO...
    EASTWARD INTO OH...

...MID MS/OH VALLEY...

A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY2 PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY REGION AS STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT SPREADS ATOP A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  A POTPOURRI OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.

Maps, Graphics, Technical discussion:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
________________________________________________________________

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TABULAR FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

ROWS INCLUDE...
DAILY PREDOMINANT DAYTIME WEATHER 6AM-6PM
FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EARLY MORNING LOW/DAYTIME HIGH
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION NIGHTTIME 6PM-6AM/DAYTIME 6AM-6PM

FCST     FCST     FCST     FCST     FCST     FCST     FCST
TODAY    FRI      SAT      SUN      MON      TUE      WED
JUN 18   JUN 19   JUN 20   JUN 21   JUN 22   JUN 23   JUN 24
======   ======   ======   ======   ======   ======   ======
PTCLDY   PTCLDY   TSTRMS   PTCLDY   PTCLDY   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
--/85    65/90    72/83    65/84    60/83    58/83    60/84
--/30    30/40    60/50    30/10    10/20    10/10    10/20

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WILL CONTINUE
TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION...BEFORE STALLING OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA LATE THIS MORNING. THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT...WITH HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES INCREASING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...PARTICULARLY WEST OF A LINE FROM PARKERSBURG TO
CHARLESTON TO BECKLEY.

WITH THE WARM FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST...SO DOES THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH THE FRONT PUSHING JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WHERE STORMS AGAIN COULD
BECOME QUITE STRONG IF NOT DAMAGING.  FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE AS HOT A
DAY WE HAVE HAD IN A WHILE...WITH 90 WITHIN EASY REACH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOWLANDS.

A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
FURTHER EXACERBATE THE THUNDERSTORM SITUATION.  THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.  IF IT IS SLOW
ENOUGH...THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME QUITE
STRONG AGAIN.  WITH ANY LUCK...THE WEATHER MIGHT ACTUALLY START TO
SETTLE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THIS FIRST
WEEKEND OF SUMMER AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Volunteer precip observers needed for OH and WV !
http://CoCoRaHS.org/

=====================================================================
The "StormFlood" Listserv is a regional preparedness and
planning partnership made possible by funding from
Ohio University Environmental Health and Safety.

Affiliated web services:

Athens Ohio Climatological Data Archive:
http://climate.athens.oh.us/

Southeast Ohio Flood Potential Monitoring page:
http://seorf.ohiou.edu/xx073/floodprep.html

Subscribe/Un-subscribe this mailing list:
http://listserv.ohio.edu/mailman/listinfo/stormflood
=====================================================================